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The California Almond Board has released its July Position Report with shipments of +229 million pounds compared to 180 million pounds last year for an +27.3 per cent increase!  A new record has been establishing for July shipments.  This year’s July shipments were up an astounding +49 million pounds over last year!

Million Pounds Percent

DOMESTIC          70.89                    +4.0%

EXPORT               158.50                  +41.5%

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:  for the 2020 Crop Year, the industry shipped +2.892 billion pounds compared to 2.372 billion pounds last year for an increase of +22.16 per cent.

COUNTRY            Million Pounds Percent Increase over Last Year

  • USA                      808                       +4.37%
  • INDIA                   362                       +42%
  • SPAIN                  238                       +24%
  • CHINA/HK           162                       +65%
  • GERMANY          157                       +17%
  • U A E                    122                       +42%
  • ITALY                    96                          +26%
  • NETHERLANDS  93                          +27%
  • JAPAN                  92                          +8%

CROP RECEIPTS: The Crop Receipts for 2020 were at +3.106 billion pounds compared to the 2019 crop of 2.551 billion pounds for an increase of +21.78 per cent.

MARKET: The Market continues to be firm in pricing, with India leading the charge with substantial demand for their market.  Before the shipment report, Inshell prices reached a level of $2.45 per lbs FAS for nearby shipments, which equals a level of $3.50 per lbs Kernel basis.  Kernel prices have risen 20 cents per lbs for NPX and Carmel during the past few weeks in an attempt to keep pace with the inshell equivalent.  NPX 27/30 was at $3.00 per lbs FAS.  Prices are rising for multiple reasons. Firstly is the Drought.  Lack of water is impacting the current crop and will have a substantial impact on the 2022 crop.  The extreme temperatures combined with the limited availability of water for irrigation this season have impacted the kernel sizes, resulting in flatter almonds ( not plumb), resulting in smaller sizes this year due to the lack of weight in the kernels.  NASS predicted we would have smaller kernels, and it is materializing in the harvest.

The second reason for the increased pricing is the harvest appearing to validate the NASS Objective Estimate of a crop of 2.8 billion pounds.   Sales in July were at 193 million pounds, being 77 million pounds of the current crop and 115 million pounds of new crop.  The ending carries out will now be approximately 600 million pounds.  The new crop is now sold at 15.77 per cent, which is lower than in prior years.  Kernel Buyers have been reluctant to buy significant quantities at this year’s increased prices compared to last year, and growers are hesitant to sell as well, as their growing costs are significantly higher. They fear the impact of the drought on next year’s crop.  The lack of water to irrigate this summer has some orchards in the more stressed condition, which will impact their production next year.  With the shipments up 27.3 per cent compared to last year for July, we will see all prices increase a minimum of another 5 cents per pound.  The Domestic Industry appears to be underbought and will need to enter the market soon.

HARVEST: Harvest is underway throughout the state.  It started a few days earlier on the stressed orchards in some areas, which lacked adequate water for irrigation this year.  Sizes are smaller for sure on the initially harvested orchards.  Quantities and weights in these orchards are also down compared to last year in these same orchards.  The positive point is the inshell for nonpareil appears to be more paper-thin shells, so yields should be good overall. Growers want to deliver more volume of inshell this year than kernels due to the premiums that inshell is commanding.

OUTLOOK: Sales will start to pick up in the coming weeks for buyers seeking new crop shipments.  Growers will be hesitant to move kernels unless their prices increase significantly compared to the inshell premiums.  Growers will sell cautiously until December/January until they see if the state receives ample rains to fill the reservoirs or not.  If significant rains do not materialize by early January, we could see all pricing rise another 50 cents per pound or more.

Source: Summit Premium Tree Nuts

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