CALIFORNIA WALNUT REPORT NOVEMBER 2021
“Since the bottom is only declared in retrospect, those who wait for it almost always go away empty-handed.” Frank Martin
NOVEMBER SHIPMENTS: The November 2021 Walnut shipments were +81,727 tons in 2021 versus 113,371 tons in November 2020 on an inshell equivalent, for a decrease of -28.02 percent
SEASON TO DATE SHIPMENTS: The industry has shipped a total 191,558 tons for 2021 crop, compared to 246,190 tons at this point for 2020 crop. This is a decrease of -22.2%.
CROP: Receipts recorded as of November 30, 2021 are +675,733 tons which is a 14% reduction from 2020 crop of 785,000 tons. The NASS estimate for the 2021 walnut crop is 680,000 tons.
DOMESTIC/ USA: November 2021 shipments versus 2020 shipments on an inshell equivalent were down -13.4%
EXPORT: November 2021 shipments versus 2020 shipments on an inshell equivalent were down -36.86%
Key Markets-November 2021 vs. November2020
Turkey: inshell down -49.93%
UAE: inshell down -72.89%
Japan: kernels up 38.05%
Middle East/Africa: inshell down -60.18%
Europe: kernels up 26.35%
Total: Export Inshell down -53.78%, Export kernels down -4.69%
Harvest/Storm: Harvest is done, and it can be characterized as “pre storm” and “post storm”. “Pre storm” are Howard, Tulare, and a good portion of the Chandler crops. Color is good, very good on the Chandler, and overall quality would be acceptable for all major markets. “Post Storm” are the Chandler that were not harvested in time before our significant rain late October. The quality on this portion of the crop is mediocre at best. The inshell must be cracked out to make kernels, and we suspect that a significant portion will have to be sold as dark combo kernels.
MARKET/ PRICING: Suppliers cannot solely blame the shipping difficulties as the sole reason for the low November shipments, although it definitely had an enormous effect. Kernels shipments to Asia were up .27%, and Europe was up over 26%. The lack of inshell sales for the entire months of September and October are apparent with inshell being down overall 53%. The weak Turkish Lira, combined with rising ocean freight costs, a lack of available containers, and the end of Ramadan purchasing season will make a short term inshell recovery unlikely. Many markets in the Middle East purchased quantities of inshell from China which impacted Californian’s early inshell shipments. California suppliers will most likely lower prices in the short term to try and spur demand, aggressive buyers will be able to find premium brands for extremely competitive prices.
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