Demand and trading volumes were good last week. The course for the next season is now appearing to be set. [swpm_protected visible_to=”logged_in_users_only” custom_msg=’This content is for members only. Please login or sign up now.’] The TMO has opted not to act as a buyer until the new season. This is also no longer necessary as it is nearly certain that the bid price for the new crop will range higher than the current one. The growers, therefore, have no reason to panic and sell their stocks. They can now wait patiently and even sell as late as next season.
In general, it can be said that the raw material market appears to be turning a bit. More and more voices are speaking of a small crop in Italy and Italian businesses have already started buying in Turkey. This is the boost the exporters require. Export figures are also recovering. They will likely be on par with last year (c. 270,000 mt) or may even range higher. The mood is, therefore, positive, especially since advance sales also pose a reasonably acceptable risk. We perceive cautious voices concerning the new crop in the producing countries Azerbaijan and Georgia. The next season will seemingly be a “Turkish” one.
The buyers are also mainly satisfied with developments. Growers in the producing country are obtaining higher prices. Due to exchange rate fluctuations prices range much lower than last year at present, which is good for cost estimations as hazelnuts are one of the few commodities that have not risen sharply in price over the last few weeks.
This trading week will be short. Due to the celebrations marking the end of Ramadan factories will be closed from Wednesday/Thursday till Sunday/Monday. Holidays will, however, be observed in Europe. This why we expect trading activities to be cut short. The first groups have, in addition, already started counting for the INC production estimate.
No relevant financial and political news has been issued. The Turkish lira remains weak with a certain volatility.