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On Tuesday of this trading week, the market leader announced its buying bid for raw in-shell. At TRY 25.0/kg + TRY 0.25/kg quality premium for excellent quality, the bid is at the lower end of what most players expected.

As a result, we now have a situation where the free market is in the 24.0 – 24.5 TRY/kg region, the market leader is bidding 25.0 (+0.25) TRY/kg, and the TMO 26.5 TRY/kg. We thus already have a relatively wide range of prices, so we do not necessarily expect prices to fall significantly again in the open market. On the one hand, we have already seen long queues at the TMO buying points on the first few days, and apparently, there are already registrations for more than 80,000 mt by farmers. Although these are only blocked dates, for the time being, it also shows that farmers are keeping a close eye on prices and want to get the best for themselves. The coming weeks will show whether they will keep the appointments, which is why we see a certain reluctance among many sellers at the moment.

Overall, the situation is splitting the market into two camps. Some say that it can only get more expensive from now on in terms of raw material. Some, however, are now forcing sales, which usually shows that they are betting on a falling market or speculating on the development of the exchange rate. We suspect that we will not see a big collapse in commodities in the next few weeks. For one thing, the level in the free market is already well below the TMO level, and some exporters have now announced that they want to buy at these prices. In addition, many exporters have loss-making forward contracts. They are now shying away from further risk, so even if commodity prices fall again, most exporters will not pass this on, especially as they can then get a reasonable price from the market leader.

In addition, since the end of the week, there has been heavy rainfall again on the Black Sea coast, and the drying of the kernels is not progressing. We are now two to three weeks behind schedule, and we still have to catch up. The delay is also slowly making itself felt in the stocks in Europe. Once again, it shows that it is advantageous to start the new season with a certain buffer.

For the coming week, we expect most people to watch the market for the time being. The lack of raw material inflow due to the weather is slowing down the emergence of momentum, so the week should be rather quiet. Concerning the exchange rate, there is still no clear trend. If the price structure for raw materials continues in this form, the exchange rate will probably be the decisive factor in the coming months. However, this also means that buying decisions or refraining from a decision is, in a way, speculation on the exchange rate because the corridor for commodity prices for the next few months is now given.

  • Market leader publishes purchase bid at TRY 25.0/kg + TRY 0.25/kg quality premium
  • Registrations for sales appointments at the TMO are skyrocketing. However, it is not yet clear whether the appointments will be kept
  • Another bad weather front delays the drying of the kernels
  • Sellers are mainly switching to a wait-and-see attitude
  • Exporters are currently signalling interest in buying
  • Turkish lira stronger again in the course of the week

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