This week was supposed to bring clarity to the market, with President Erdoğan announcing the TMO’s purchase price for the coming season. However, he is currently busy appeasing the political situation. The ongoing forest fires in the south of Turkey continue to heat the domestic political situation. The president only went to the crisis area after several days to show his presence. Critics accuse the government of failure (no operational fire-fighting aircraft, etc.). The president counters with a “terrorist” opposition. Supporters of the PKK, for example, are also planning attacks against forests. Even if this situation has nothing to do with the hazelnut market, it shows how emotional politics is and that one should not always expect a rational decision. However, this is transferable to the hazelnut market.
Here the market is still on hold. The announcement of the price on the export market will probably not boost demand. Most buyers have already made their covers for the fourth quarter and the first quarter as well. It is more a question of how to deal with the second and third quarters, and here too, it remains an uncertain matter due to the volatile exchange rate. However, where we can expect a pick-up is with the market leader. As soon as the price is known, it will define its strategy and go to market. The exporters’ sales behaviour will also depend on this because they will decide whether to focus on export or supply to the market leader according to his bid.
Concerning commodity prices, we have seen a small downward price correction this week. However, these are individual sellers (mainly crackers) who are still clearing the warehouse to be ready for the new season. It is noticeable that many exporters still have significantly more shipments from the current harvest for August than in previous years, which also has to do with rising prices. Therefore, exporters are now optimistic that they will achieve exports of almost 290,000 mt for this season.
The exchange rate shows that the Turkish lira cannot maintain its recovery trend and is currently under pressure again. However, this can only be a snapshot.
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