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NEW DELHI: Private weather forecasting service, Skymet said in a revised update that India’s southwest monsoon is likely to be below normal considering the present trajectory.

There is a 60% chance of below normal, forecasting monsoon to be at 94% of the long period average with an error margin of +/-% LPA=880.6 mm for the 4 month period from June to September.

The agency had earlier released its monsoon foreshadow for 2021 on April 13, 2021.

The Southwest monsoon has a timely onset and made a good start, with June ending above normal at 110% of the long period average(LPA). July started on a weak note and the month was marred with a pronged break till 11th July. Therefore, the month finished with below normal rainfall at 93% of LPA. June and July ended with 110% and 93% of LPA against Skymet’s forecast of 106% and 97% respectively.

The southwest monsoon encountered the 2nd break monsoon phase during the 1st fortnight of August. Extended weak monsoon conditions resulted in Pan-India seasonal rainfall deficiency setting at 9% till the middle of August. The below normal status of monsoon has not improved till now.

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