Trading was busy again this week, despite the holidays. Negotiations between industry and trade no longer appear to be stalled and movement is perceptible in the market. [swpm_protected visible_to=”logged_in_users_only” custom_msg=’This content is for members only. Please sign up now.’] Sellers report that their order books are slowly filling for the fourth quarter and beyond. Thereby it is not only time that is driving contracts but also the rise in prices for most other commodities in the market. Even for hazelnuts there are indications that the market may turn again after falling for weeks on end. Local newspapers along the Black Sea Coast are reporting that the TMO may issue a bid price for the new season as early as next week. This would create a lower price limit again without the TMO having to buy.

The market is not only concerned over the TMO’s activities but also over local frost damages in Ordu that are only becoming visible now and may very well adversely impact yields. As one of the largest producing areas Ordu is particularly important to the market. However, it should be noted that the damages rather appear to be local. No such reports have been issued in other areas in the Eastern Black Sea Region, where the first teams have already started counting for the production estimate to be issued by the exporters. The western Black Sea Region along with the Akçakoca region is the only area still to be covered. Unless of course any surprises emerge here the current crop estimate will be officially reported to the INC. Enthusiasm is, however, lacking and the market leader will be urged to issue a bid that comes close to the TMO to prevent the state-run organisation from obtaining large raw material volumes.

Contrary to developments in the raw material market where prices are about to turn, we have observed that the Turkish lira is continuing to lose against the euro and the US dollar and thereby conceals developments in the raw material market. Although demand is high and arrivals are lacking, prices continue to fall due to exchange rate fluctuations. This begs the question as to what Turkey’s central bank can do to stop this trend, or if the economic recovery prompted by (the hoped for) end of the pandemic in Europe at least will prompt a disproportionate boom in Tukey as an emerging market. A trend of playing it safe is rather perceptible in the market at present, even if many stakeholders are still betting on prices falling further.