This week there were the first noteworthy enquiries from Europe about the 2022 harvest. However, these are currently more orientations than substantial buying interest, although the discussion about possible frost damage has probably prompted one or two buyers to deal with the topic of hazelnut kernels a little earlier than expected.
For exporters, the issue continues to divide the market. While some build up speculative stocks, others are very relaxed about the coming harvest. On the one hand, it is paradoxical that there are hardly any sellers of raw goods, but prices are softening slightly. Moreover, certain quantities of the current TMO tender have already been traded, even though the price is significantly higher than the price in the free market. This would mean that some exporters expect prices to rise in the short term. But perhaps this was also a reaction to the weather forecast towards the middle of the week, which had predicted another night frost for the eastern Black Sea region for the coming week. However, this has now been revised again. We note that the Turkish sellers are much tighter at the moment than the European buyers. Until a week from now, we will be able to determine from the vegetation whether there has been significant damage that justifies such buying behaviour.
Overall, we have seen constant to slightly rising export prices this week despite slightly falling commodity prices. On the one hand, this is due to the slightly strengthening Turkish lira and the caution of certain sellers. We expect the market to be somewhat tighter for the next two weeks. Then it should be possible to exclude the frost risk and the marketing of the 2022 harvest should start together with the first large tenders. However, a few outstanding enquiries for the third quarter should keep the market going.
- Conflicting opinions on possible frost damage
- Sellers are divided, but European buyers are mostly relaxed
- Some exporters continue to build up their stocks (quickly)
- Price in the open market is slightly down again, although there are hardly any sellers.
- Turkish lira with a slight gain in the course of the week.
- Increasing interest in current and coming harvests
- Still significant differences in offers from the various suppliers, also for the coming harvest