TRABZON – After the holidays the previous week, factories have started up again this week. Most manufacturers still have an above-average number of orders to process before the usual maintenance and cleaning work next month. This is because many buyers have switched to goods from the current harvest, after all, to start the new season with them since the coming harvest is traded at a higher level.
For next Tuesday or Wednesday, the publication of the purchase price by President Erdogan is expected. However, this will be only one piece of the puzzle in setting the course for the coming season. Almost more important will be the reaction of the market leader to this price. Overall, the free market should have a vested interest in seeing as little volume as possible to the TMO’s disposal. The larger the number of hazelnut kernels that the TMO has in its inventory, the more it can use them to make policy. This is especially important when the upcoming spring crop is predicted to be “small”. We know from experience that because of the purchasing criteria, the formalities at the TMO, and the personal relationships with local traders, farmers prefer to give their nuts to the open market rather than government institutions. However, this is only the case if the difference between the state-guaranteed price and the price in the free market is not too large. We know from the past that when the difference becomes larger than 1 TRY/kg, farmers start to turn their backs on the free market. The price in the free market mainly depends on the purchase price set by the market leader. We assume that this season, as before, the market leader will set a close to the TMO bid. We also suspect that it will be very active from the beginning of the season. This allows the big crackers to buy goods in the open market and deliver them, albeit with a tiny margin, to the market leader.
However, this again creates a market for exports where the large exporters are likely to bid at TMO levels since they can easily offer merchandise otherwise to the market leader. The small ones will pass on the advantage of the free market for short-term appointments. In addition, most of the large exporters are also likely to have sold too cheaply in the pre-contracts. If the forecast comes true and the Turkish lira remains at the current level, they are likely to realize losses. Also, for this reason, sellers have now become more cautious, which has brought the general price level up a bit again.
Overall, however, we must note that we are currently at somewhat the same price level as we had last season at this time. Therefore, the market is currently relatively relaxed and continues to wait and see. In terms of commodity prices, however, we have now seen a slight increase every week. There is not much missing, and we have reached the level at which the coming harvest is currently traded.
One more look at the exchange rate. The Turkish lira records a slight plus towards the end of the week. However, this does not yet mark a change in trend. In the summer months, there is usually a slight tendency to strength due to tourism. While the tourist economy is happy, voices are increasingly being raised in Turkey, which sees a renewed lockdown in the fall because the actual situation is worse, as presented by the (state) media.
Since in Europe the vacation season continues to slow down the market, we expect only from mid-August a further revival of demand. Then the course for the new season should finally be set. Then all that remains is for the weather to be suitable during the drying phase, and then nothing will stand in the way of a good start to the season.
- Demand remains subdued due to the vacation season.
- Raw material prices continue to rise slowly and steadily. Level of 2021 harvest now almost reached.
- Turkish lira stable with slight strength at the end of the trading week.
- The market is waiting for President Erdogan to announce the TMO purchase price and the reaction of the market leader.
- The second half of the season saves the sellers export figures. Exports are expected to be around 285,000 mt, much higher than initially expected.
The following reports may be of interest to you: