Optimistic and pessimistic scenario
In 2022/23, Ukraine will be able to export from 20 million tons to 40 million tons of grain, depending on the success of negotiations regarding the grain corridor.
Thus, according to the optimistic scenario, i.e. under the further functioning of the grain corridor in 2022/23, the export potential of grains is estimated at 40.3 million tons (-23% to 2021/22 MR). Incl. wheat — 13.8 million tons (-27 %), barley — 2.4 million tons (-58%) and corn — 24.0 million tons (-11%).
Under the pessimistic scenario, shipments of Ukrainian grain to the foreign market may amount to only 24.3 million tons (-53%). Incl. wheat — 8.1 million tons (-57%), barley — 2.0 million tons (-65%), and corn — 14.1 million tons (-48%).
Grain Corridor doesn’t have a complete alternative
As noted, in the period from July to October 2022, 13.2 million tons of grain were shipped from Ukraine to the foreign market, which is 33% less than the volume exported for the same period in 2021 (19.6 million tons). Thus, the export of corn amounted to 7.1 million tons (three times more than the same indicator in 2021), wheat — almost 5 million tons (-60%) and barley — 1.1 million tons (-76%).
As of November 17, 2022, 11.1 million tons of agricultural products from Ukraine were shipped to the world market through the grain corridor, of which 42% – corn, 30% – wheat, and almost 4% – barley.
In general, more than 60% of Ukrainian grain exports are carried out through the grain corridor.
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